- Aerospace, Naval & Defence, Schedule Management
The naval industry is among the most challenging in the world, combining advanced technologies, multinational collaborations, and critical schedules. In this context, the British Ministry of Defence (MOD) launched a programme to build three logistics ships for the Royal Navy. The initiative is being carried out by the UK subsidiary of a major Spanish industrial naval company.
The UK entity is leading the design phase, with crucial support from its parent company in Spain, particularly for one of the most demanding project milestones: the Preliminary Design Review (PDR). To ensure a realistic delivery schedule in line with MOD standards, the company requested MIGSO-PCUBED (MP) to conduct a Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA).
The Challenge: Preparing for a key milestone under high complexity
The schedule had to quantitatively demonstrate the feasibility of meeting the committed PDR date. This milestone represents the formal validation of the vessel design and is critical to advance to the production and integration phases.
Because the program was multinational, with shipyards in the UK and Spain, multiple engineering disciplines were involved and reliance on external approvals increased the level of uncertainty and complexity.
Our client turned to MP for its proven experience in schedule risk analysis on international programs.
The Solution: A Structured and Collaborative Schedule Risk Analysis
MP delivered a structured, collaborative, and actionable Schedule Risk Analysis, tailored to the naval sector’s standards and the client’s unique challenges. The process didn’t just assess risks, it transformed uncertainty into strategic clarity, enabling proactive decision-making and stakeholder alignment.
1. Base schedule validation
The client’s contractual schedule lacked the technical rigor needed for reliable risk analysis. MP’s assessment revealed hidden vulnerabilities in the schedule’s logic and data quality. This step ensured the foundation for risk analysis was robust, eliminating blind spots that could derail the project.
2. Identifying risks and unknowns
Through collaborative workshops with Engineering and Planning teams, MP uncovered and prioritized the most critical risks to the PDR milestone. The resulting Risk Log Sheet became a strategic tool, focusing the team’s attention on high-impact threats rather than generic concerns.
3. Probabilistic modeling
To reduce schedule inconsistency, key activities were assigned levels of uncertainty (very low to high), based on information quality and technical expertise. Each task’s duration was modeled as a range (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic), creating a probabilistic schedule that simulates realistic scenarios while preserving the original schedule logic.
4. Mapping schedule risks
Risks were mapped directly to affected activities, integrating their potential impact into the critical path. This visualized how delays could propagate, giving the team a clear view of interdependencies and exposure points.
5. Evaluating the uncertainties
Using Monte Carlo simulations (5,000 iterations), MP measured the schedule’s sensitivity to inherent uncertainties—even without specific risk events. This analysis revealed the baseline probability of delay, highlighting the urgency for mitigation before risks materialized.
6. Risk analysis of the pre-mitigated scenario
First, the initial simulation demonstrated a high likelihood of missing the PDR target date under the existing plan. This insight justified the need for immediate action, shifting the conversation from hope to evidence-based planning.
7. Risk analysis of the post-mitigated scenario
After modeling the client’s mitigation actions, the analysis showed reduced—but persistent—risk. This result prompted a revision of mitigation strategies, ensuring the team focused on the most effective interventions rather than assumptions.
8. Final recommendations
The analysis delivered prioritized risks, adjusted critical sequences, and anticipatory decision points. These outcomes fostered a proactive risk management culture, embedding data-driven decision-making into the client’s processes.
Final impact
The Schedule Risk Analysis didn’t just identify problems—it equipped the client with the insights and tools to act. By converting uncertainty into actionable strategies, MP enabled the team to:
- Align stakeholders around realistic timelines.
- Focus resources on high-impact risks.
- Build confidence in their ability to meet critical milestones.
The result: A risk-aware, data-driven approach that turned potential delays into opportunities for proactive management.
Results: Informed decisions and increased probability of success
Thanks to the SRA performed by MP, the client obtained an accurate diagnosis of its schedule and a clear visualization of the risks associated with the PDR:
Delay Risk Identified Through Simulation
Through Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that there was a possibility of falling behind the initial target date, indicating the need for risk mitigation. This was done through the evaluation of a pre-mitigated scenario considering the uncertainty of the deadlines and the occurrence of possible risks.
3 key risks identified
Three key risks with high-impact risks linked to the critical path and the PDR milestone were identified, enabling scenarios to be anticipated and mitigation efforts to be targeted.
Post-Mitigation Scenario Shows Improved Success Probability
In the post-mitigated scenario, the probability of minimizing the impact of the risks by performing mitigation actions has been included. By carrying out these actions, the probability of success is reviewed with the deterministic date.
Mitigation Plans Optimized Based on Analysis
The information obtained through the analysis allowed optimizing the mitigation plans to increase the probability of success of the program.
Based on these results, our client was able to optimize its mitigation plans, present a robust plan to the MOD, gain institutional confidence, and move confidently into the next phase of the program. In addition, the process helped instill a more proactive risk management culture in the local team.
A partnership that delivers results
This case demonstrates the tangible value of integrating risk analysis in early phases of a strategic program. The collaboration between MP and this important naval company not only contributed to the timely success of the PDR milestone but also strengthened the client's internal capabilities to meet future challenges.
For other defense or shipbuilding teams, this case demonstrates that specialized SRA intervention can make the difference between planning with intuition and planning with evidence. In critical and visible programs, risk analysis is not a luxury, it is a necessity.
This article was written by Loredana Rossato.
Need help meeting your project deadline?
Find out how what our schedule managers can do for you!
Interested in working with us?
As a customer-first consulting firm, we take pride in our client relationships. That’s why our focus is to be your Project Management partner, working with you to find the best solution for your needs.
When you contact us, we ensure every message is read, thoughtfully considered, and passed to the right person. Our Business Managers are ready when you are!
